The good news: I correctly predicted who would win 49 out of the 50 states in this presidential election.

The bad news: my prediction that Kerry would win Ohio wasn’t one of those 49.

As yesterday turned into today, CNN declared Ohio Too Close To Call, and news of Iowa’s tabulation machine breakdown came out, it was becoming clear that even if Kerry somehow miraculously edged ahead in Ohio to claim the electoral lead, things wouldn’t be looking good for him. The Republicans had done well in the governor races; in the two states that affect me most (Missouri and Indiana), Republicans took the seats away from the Democrats. The Republicans also won seats in the House and Senate, strengthening their lead. And even more importantly, Kerry was still down a few million in the popular vote — hardly any sort of a mandate.

If Kerry had won, not only would Congress be against him, but the controversy over his election would certainly put that of four years ago to shame. Everything bitter Democrats said about Bush in 2000 would now be thrown at Kerry by the Republicans, and Ohio would become this year’s Recount State. Not at all the sort of way you want to be kicking off your presidency.

Which is hardly saying that I’m relieved that Bush got re-elected either. But at two in the morning, neither potential outcome was looking particularly desirable.

I could say more, but seeing as how just about everybody else is going to be blogging about the election in one way or another, I’ll cut it off here.

Comments are closed.