You Make The Call 2004

It’s November 1, the last day of non-election-related-chaos we’re going to have for at least a week. Time to predict what’s going to happen!

The rules are simple. Since the electoral vote is what matters, the goal is to correctly predict which presidential candidate each state’s electors will be voting for. You get one point for each electoral vote you correctly predict. So, for example, if you correctly predict Kerry will take California, you get 55 points.

(Fun fact: Maine and Nebraska could theoretically split their electoral votes between candidates since they don’t use all-or-nothing systems. But none of the polls are suggesting that that’s likely in either state, and the proposed Colorado amendment to do that doesn’t look like it’ll pass.)

To make things a little more interesting, you can also predict that the election in any given state will be FUBAR. If you correctly predict a state will be FUBAR, you double your points from that state. Incorrectly predict FUBAR, and you lose all your points from that state. In other words, FUBAR is double-or-nothing.

Finally, if you are eligible to vote in the election and don’t, you automatically lose half your points.

Without any further ado, here are my predictions for tomorrow:

State Electoral Votes Prediction
Alabama 9 Bush
Alaska 3 Bush
Arizona 10 Bush
Arkansas 6 Bush
California 55 Kerry
Colorado 9 Bush
Connecticut 7 Kerry
D. C. 3 Kerry
Delaware 3 Kerry
Florida 27 Bush, FUBAR
Georgia 15 Bush
Hawaii 4 Kerry
Idaho 4 Bush
Illinois 21 Kerry
Indiana 11 Bush
Iowa 7 Bush
Kansas 6 Bush
Kentucky 8 Bush
Louisiana 9 Bush
Maine 4 Kerry
Maryland 10 Kerry
Massachusetts 12 Kerry
Michigan 17 Kerry
Minnesota 10 Kerry
Mississippi 6 Bush
Missouri 11 Bush
Montana 3 Bush
Nebraska 5 Bush
Nevada 5 Bush
New Hampshire 4 Kerry
New Jersey 15 Kerry
New Mexico 5 Bush
New York 31 Kerry
North Carolina 15 Bush
North Dakota 3 Bush
Ohio 20 Kerry, FUBAR
Oklahoma 7 Bush
Oregon 7 Kerry
Pennsylvania 21 Kerry
Rhode Island 4 Kerry
South Carolina 8 Bush
South Dakota 3 Bush
Tennessee 11 Bush
Texas 34 Bush
Utah 5 Bush
Vermont 3 Kerry
Virginia 13 Bush
Washington 11 Kerry
West Virginia 5 Bush
Wisconsin 10 Kerry
Wyoming 3 Bush

Which means the final results will be (remember that 270 electoral votes are needed to win):

Kerry Bush
Undisputed 252 239
Disputed 20 27
Total 272 266

So my prediction: Kerry wins, barely. But whatever happens, this election is going to be close, ugly, and disputed.

<sarcasm>Just how you’d want such a critical election to be.</sarcasm>

8 Responses

  1. I think Kerry will win Iowa as well.

  2. That’s what the polls are suggesting for Iowa, but my gut isn’t buying the idea that Kerry has a 6% lead there. There’s a few other predictions of mine that are somewhat pessimistic too given the polls I’ve seen.

  3. i think no matter who ends up winning, mickey mouse will get more votes this year than in any prior election year…

  4. The one thing about Iowa is that kerry’s leading among early voters. early voting won it for gore in 2000. democrats in iowa are super organized

  5. I wasn’t aware of that about Iowa Democrats. But the Republicans may well push to bring out the far-right Christian vote like they did in the Missouri primaries thanks to Amendment 2.

  6. I predict a FUBAR for New Mexico. NM has used electronic black-box voting machines for years, which aren’t going to change any time soon. Recall it was a FUBAR four years ago too – it was originally (barely) Gore, but then a recount changed it to (even more barely) Bush.

  7. Oh, also, California might not go to Kerry. Keep in mind that although it has an appearance of being liberal, that’s really just one small part (bay area). Most of the state is pretty conservative.

  8. If Kerry doesn’t get California, he’s screwed. Sure the Republicans managed to replace the governor with the Governator, but it’s not like Davis was exactly popular before that anyway. It might not be a Kerry blowout, but it won’t go to Bush.

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